* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942019 09/07/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 53 62 67 70 73 76 77 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 53 62 67 70 73 76 77 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 32 34 40 48 57 65 69 69 69 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 7 6 6 3 4 3 5 6 2 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -3 -6 -4 0 -3 3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 101 110 104 72 55 48 355 198 261 216 239 190 247 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 132 132 135 138 138 140 140 140 141 145 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 128 129 129 132 135 133 134 133 131 131 137 149 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 60 60 62 62 62 61 63 60 55 54 53 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 6 6 5 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 52 45 47 53 54 53 59 45 36 26 18 -2 1 200 MB DIV 13 4 1 13 16 7 0 35 -4 39 47 18 -50 700-850 TADV 2 1 -1 -4 -3 1 0 0 -1 1 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 1430 1547 1677 1807 1937 1838 1635 1485 1354 1295 1255 1209 1114 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.7 14.6 14.4 14.3 14.1 13.6 13.2 12.8 12.7 12.4 12.1 11.8 LONG(DEG W) 30.8 31.9 33.1 34.3 35.5 37.9 39.9 41.4 42.7 43.4 43.6 43.9 44.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 12 10 9 7 5 3 2 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 12 12 12 21 17 21 23 24 25 27 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 25. 28. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 28. 37. 42. 45. 48. 51. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.6 30.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942019 INVEST 09/07/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.82 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.68 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 116.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 16.2% 11.5% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 13.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 10.6% 5.1% 1.4% 0.5% 6.3% 20.3% 50.3% Bayesian: 1.4% 10.6% 3.1% 0.2% 0.2% 2.6% 1.0% 4.9% Consensus: 2.6% 12.5% 6.6% 3.1% 0.3% 3.0% 11.6% 18.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942019 INVEST 09/07/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 35 42 53 62 67 70 73 76 77 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 39 50 59 64 67 70 73 74 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 34 45 54 59 62 65 68 69 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 36 45 50 53 56 59 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT