* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942019 09/07/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 29 37 49 61 69 74 77 82 84 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 29 37 49 61 69 74 77 82 84 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 24 29 34 43 53 64 70 73 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 10 5 6 2 1 6 2 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -4 -7 -8 -1 -2 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 93 90 85 78 68 50 31 66 249 209 228 191 256 SST (C) 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.0 28.4 28.4 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 136 140 140 139 140 137 142 141 147 146 147 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 134 137 138 137 138 134 138 137 140 138 138 141 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 60 60 59 61 62 61 62 62 60 56 54 53 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 54 52 45 46 51 49 49 45 34 21 17 9 12 200 MB DIV 17 13 3 4 13 3 10 22 22 35 30 9 -24 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 -2 -3 -3 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1344 1494 1623 1753 1894 1866 1643 1446 1305 1195 1126 1061 989 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.5 14.3 14.0 13.6 13.2 12.9 12.8 12.7 12.5 12.3 LONG(DEG W) 30.0 31.4 32.6 33.8 35.1 37.5 39.8 41.9 43.5 45.0 45.9 46.6 47.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 12 12 11 9 8 6 4 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 15 17 14 21 17 25 26 33 34 34 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 427 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 9. 17. 23. 28. 32. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 7. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 17. 29. 41. 49. 54. 57. 62. 64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.6 30.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942019 INVEST 09/07/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 10.7% 6.1% 2.4% 0.8% 6.8% 16.0% 51.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 3.8% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 7.5% Consensus: 0.9% 4.8% 2.4% 0.8% 0.3% 2.5% 5.5% 19.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942019 INVEST 09/07/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 25 29 37 49 61 69 74 77 82 84 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 27 35 47 59 67 72 75 80 82 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 22 30 42 54 62 67 70 75 77 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT