* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942019 09/07/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 36 46 60 70 78 81 87 88 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 36 46 60 70 78 81 87 88 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 23 24 28 33 41 52 65 74 77 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 9 11 10 11 7 6 2 1 2 3 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -2 -2 -4 -5 -6 -7 -3 0 0 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 112 86 84 90 84 53 67 53 105 208 202 224 249 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.8 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 136 141 142 142 138 139 141 142 145 145 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 132 134 139 139 140 136 136 136 136 136 135 133 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 58 61 62 61 62 62 61 63 59 57 57 57 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 8 6 8 8 9 9 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 55 56 59 51 50 61 54 55 44 39 27 26 19 200 MB DIV 3 24 25 20 9 21 19 -8 38 18 47 29 2 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 -1 -4 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1205 1356 1495 1625 1744 1969 1752 1540 1384 1276 1215 1190 1166 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.3 14.2 13.8 13.6 13.2 12.9 12.8 12.8 12.9 13.0 LONG(DEG W) 28.7 30.1 31.4 32.6 33.7 36.2 38.5 40.7 42.4 43.8 44.7 45.2 45.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 12 12 11 10 7 6 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 9 11 12 15 17 16 19 20 25 27 32 34 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 9. 17. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 8. 6. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -1. -3. -1. -3. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 16. 26. 40. 50. 58. 61. 67. 68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.4 28.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942019 INVEST 09/07/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 8.8% 4.6% 1.6% 0.5% 5.7% 14.8% 43.7% Bayesian: 0.8% 3.8% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 1.0% 5.7% Consensus: 0.9% 4.2% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 2.1% 5.3% 16.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942019 INVEST 09/07/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 25 28 36 46 60 70 78 81 87 88 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 26 34 44 58 68 76 79 85 86 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 29 39 53 63 71 74 80 81 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT