* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942019 09/06/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 36 46 57 66 69 76 81 83 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 36 46 57 66 69 76 81 83 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 23 24 29 34 41 50 59 67 71 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 5 9 12 9 8 3 4 4 6 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -5 -4 -2 -4 -4 -5 -3 0 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 90 125 84 71 78 80 54 40 315 261 273 252 272 SST (C) 27.6 27.8 28.0 27.8 27.7 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 131 134 137 135 133 140 142 141 136 136 137 134 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 131 134 132 130 138 139 138 132 129 128 123 119 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 62 61 62 65 64 65 63 61 60 58 55 57 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 9 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 44 42 44 46 51 48 49 47 49 50 56 57 47 200 MB DIV 33 20 19 18 24 11 15 12 -16 10 31 55 27 700-850 TADV 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 812 929 1047 1175 1303 1561 1832 1921 1727 1594 1516 1495 1505 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.1 14.1 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.0 13.9 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.9 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 25.0 26.1 27.2 28.4 29.6 32.0 34.5 36.8 38.8 40.4 41.4 42.0 42.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 10 9 6 4 2 0 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 10 11 14 17 18 18 18 22 22 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 9. 16. 23. 28. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -2. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 16. 27. 37. 46. 49. 56. 61. 63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.0 25.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942019 INVEST 09/06/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 21.6% 10.9% 3.7% 1.9% 10.1% 19.7% 56.5% Bayesian: 0.6% 5.9% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 3.2% Consensus: 1.3% 9.2% 4.1% 1.3% 0.7% 3.5% 6.7% 19.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942019 INVEST 09/06/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 25 28 36 46 57 66 69 76 81 83 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 26 34 44 55 64 67 74 79 81 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 29 39 50 59 62 69 74 76 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT