* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942019 09/06/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 28 36 46 59 68 74 78 84 85 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 28 36 46 59 68 74 78 84 85 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 23 24 29 34 41 52 63 73 80 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 5 5 9 8 6 4 2 3 2 2 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -5 -4 -4 -2 -5 -5 -4 -4 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 85 91 123 90 72 80 64 61 306 330 254 241 237 SST (C) 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.7 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.5 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 129 132 136 140 138 134 134 138 137 137 143 150 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 128 132 138 136 132 131 136 135 133 138 143 138 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 61 60 60 59 63 61 62 59 61 61 59 54 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 34 39 41 42 44 36 48 50 53 50 41 40 36 200 MB DIV 22 29 24 8 8 1 12 18 23 21 38 32 57 700-850 TADV 4 4 1 0 0 1 -1 -1 1 0 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 682 799 916 1044 1184 1473 1753 1980 1745 1547 1392 1301 1250 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.6 14.5 14.4 14.1 13.8 13.6 13.7 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 23.8 24.9 26.0 27.2 28.5 31.2 33.8 36.5 39.0 41.2 43.1 44.6 45.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 12 13 13 13 13 12 10 8 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 9 12 12 12 11 10 14 15 20 20 29 39 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 9. 16. 22. 27. 31. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 7. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 16. 26. 39. 48. 54. 58. 64. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.1 23.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942019 INVEST 09/06/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.75 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 116.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 29.5% 16.6% 5.8% 3.1% 11.9% 20.6% 56.5% Bayesian: 0.7% 6.3% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 9.1% Consensus: 1.8% 11.9% 5.9% 1.9% 1.1% 4.1% 7.0% 21.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 6.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942019 INVEST 09/06/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 26 28 36 46 59 68 74 78 84 85 18HR AGO 20 19 21 24 26 34 44 57 66 72 76 82 83 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 21 29 39 52 61 67 71 77 78 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT