* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942019 09/06/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 27 34 45 56 64 73 78 87 90 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 27 34 45 56 64 73 78 87 90 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 23 24 28 33 40 48 58 69 82 93 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 2 3 2 9 8 8 3 2 2 1 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -3 -2 -2 -6 -5 -4 -3 -3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 96 100 116 158 131 77 79 83 124 114 149 358 177 SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.7 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.7 28.0 28.0 28.2 29.0 29.1 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 127 130 134 139 136 134 134 138 138 140 152 153 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 127 131 137 134 131 132 136 136 139 151 151 143 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 61 60 60 60 61 62 61 60 58 58 57 54 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 6 8 7 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 24 22 31 36 44 44 45 47 40 45 37 27 7 200 MB DIV -2 9 20 9 -4 7 -13 4 14 -5 21 7 38 700-850 TADV 2 3 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 -2 0 LAND (KM) 624 763 902 1042 1181 1461 1741 1980 1737 1493 1306 1147 1048 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.0 14.9 14.7 14.4 14.1 13.6 13.3 13.1 13.2 LONG(DEG W) 23.3 24.6 25.9 27.2 28.5 31.1 33.7 36.5 39.1 41.7 44.0 46.1 47.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 7 HEAT CONTENT 7 12 14 12 9 10 14 15 20 25 35 39 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 9. 16. 22. 28. 31. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -5. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 14. 25. 36. 45. 53. 58. 68. 70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.6 23.3 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942019 INVEST 09/06/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.95 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 121.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.7% 39.8% 28.8% 12.5% 6.5% 17.4% 23.9% 58.2% Bayesian: 0.6% 4.5% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 17.7% Consensus: 2.4% 14.8% 10.1% 4.2% 2.2% 5.9% 8.1% 25.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942019 INVEST 09/06/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 24 27 34 45 56 64 73 78 87 90 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 25 32 43 54 62 71 76 85 88 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 28 39 50 58 67 72 81 84 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT