* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942019 09/05/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 27 30 38 49 60 70 77 82 87 92 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 27 30 38 49 60 70 77 82 87 92 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 30 36 44 55 66 77 87 96 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 6 5 3 4 7 6 4 1 2 2 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 -3 -5 -4 0 -2 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 73 93 90 112 129 65 62 89 99 338 358 296 333 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.4 27.6 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 28.1 27.9 28.5 29.4 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 130 127 130 132 139 136 135 134 139 136 145 159 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 124 126 129 136 134 133 133 137 135 144 159 150 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 63 61 62 61 61 63 61 60 58 61 58 58 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 7 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 36 22 21 30 26 42 37 49 46 49 42 33 11 200 MB DIV -2 4 11 10 4 21 0 -1 9 17 9 13 18 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 476 603 731 860 988 1268 1559 1849 1894 1641 1418 1217 1060 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.3 13.8 13.4 12.9 12.8 LONG(DEG W) 21.9 23.1 24.3 25.5 26.7 29.3 32.0 34.7 37.4 40.0 42.5 44.8 47.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 13 13 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 11 13 13 10 11 13 19 17 29 38 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 9. 16. 22. 27. 31. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 16. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 18. 29. 40. 50. 57. 62. 67. 72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.3 21.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942019 INVEST 09/05/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.72 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 116.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 29.2% 20.7% 11.1% 5.3% 20.7% 27.9% 54.1% Bayesian: 0.8% 14.2% 4.9% 0.7% 0.4% 2.4% 0.9% 8.1% Consensus: 2.2% 14.5% 8.5% 3.9% 1.9% 7.7% 9.6% 20.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942019 INVEST 09/05/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 25 27 30 38 49 60 70 77 82 87 92 18HR AGO 20 19 22 24 27 35 46 57 67 74 79 84 89 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 29 40 51 61 68 73 78 83 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT