* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942019 07/22/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 30 36 45 54 56 55 51 47 42 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 30 36 45 54 56 55 51 47 42 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 33 38 41 42 39 35 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 7 8 11 9 3 8 22 38 40 38 40 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -4 -2 -2 1 2 3 0 3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 306 295 275 290 326 13 237 217 233 244 252 258 270 SST (C) 30.2 30.5 30.2 29.8 29.2 30.3 29.3 28.1 29.0 27.2 22.6 22.3 19.4 POT. INT. (KT) 172 171 170 165 155 173 160 142 156 131 94 92 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 160 162 152 144 136 159 146 127 138 116 85 82 74 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.7 -0.7 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 9 10 6 7 4 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 56 55 52 56 62 56 53 55 55 51 43 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -68 -48 -56 -65 -40 47 52 27 -22 -16 -41 -52 -87 200 MB DIV -17 2 -12 0 -4 56 44 62 30 31 8 -14 -15 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 0 1 10 -3 16 -11 -4 -8 8 LAND (KM) 279 178 93 46 20 178 297 279 492 462 503 522 638 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 25.1 25.6 26.2 27.0 29.1 31.6 34.3 37.1 39.4 41.0 42.0 42.1 LONG(DEG W) 77.5 78.6 79.3 79.7 79.9 78.9 76.6 73.2 69.3 64.6 58.9 53.4 48.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 7 7 9 14 19 20 21 23 22 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 80 75 63 53 41 84 41 23 33 12 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 8. 16. 22. 27. 29. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 5. -2. -9. -16. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 20. 29. 31. 30. 26. 22. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 24.6 77.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942019 INVEST 07/22/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.74 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.41 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.19 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.88 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.98 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 142.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 16.4% 11.5% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 24.8% 16.1% 10.3% 4.6% 18.7% 26.0% 4.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 13.9% 9.2% 6.1% 1.5% 6.2% 13.3% 1.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942019 INVEST 07/22/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942019 INVEST 07/22/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 30 36 45 54 56 55 51 47 42 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 29 35 44 53 55 54 50 46 41 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 25 31 40 49 51 50 46 42 37 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 33 42 44 43 39 35 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT