* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942019 07/21/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 35 43 53 59 60 57 54 51 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 35 43 53 59 60 57 54 51 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 35 41 45 47 45 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 12 10 7 14 6 5 16 31 34 34 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -3 -4 -5 -3 -2 -2 2 7 1 1 SHEAR DIR 287 288 300 317 286 290 19 291 207 233 234 255 259 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.7 30.0 29.8 30.4 30.2 29.6 28.3 27.5 26.0 23.0 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 164 170 165 170 172 164 145 134 118 96 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 145 150 154 148 155 154 149 131 121 106 87 89 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 8 7 5 3 1 1 700-500 MB RH 45 45 45 49 51 48 58 58 56 57 56 49 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -97 -88 -81 -73 -55 -66 25 35 44 -13 -12 -39 -58 200 MB DIV 13 -2 -13 -15 -3 -9 32 47 65 34 37 -2 4 700-850 TADV 0 -1 2 5 2 0 -2 8 0 8 -10 -20 -27 LAND (KM) 401 363 344 324 289 155 190 403 312 514 545 550 600 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.0 24.2 24.6 25.2 26.3 28.1 30.2 33.0 36.0 38.6 40.4 41.3 LONG(DEG W) 73.0 74.2 75.4 76.5 77.4 78.6 78.5 76.8 73.9 70.1 65.2 59.5 53.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 9 8 11 16 20 23 24 23 21 HEAT CONTENT 57 69 78 96 78 69 55 44 22 17 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 16. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 5. -1. -6. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 18. 28. 34. 35. 32. 29. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.8 73.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942019 INVEST 07/21/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 75.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.50 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.86 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 47.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.52 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 192.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 20.0% 13.9% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 15.3% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 16.6% 10.5% 5.2% 1.8% 11.5% 16.0% 21.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 12.6% 8.3% 4.8% 0.6% 3.9% 10.5% 7.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942019 INVEST 07/21/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942019 INVEST 07/21/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 30 35 43 53 59 60 57 54 51 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 34 42 52 58 59 56 53 50 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 38 48 54 55 52 49 46 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 30 40 46 47 44 41 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT