* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942019 07/21/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 32 39 47 57 63 65 63 60 56 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 32 39 47 57 63 65 63 60 56 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 38 43 49 52 51 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 8 12 9 8 10 2 10 27 36 37 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -3 -2 -2 -4 -1 -4 -1 0 4 1 1 SHEAR DIR 276 291 285 301 320 275 331 344 263 236 239 256 255 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.4 29.7 30.1 30.3 30.7 30.1 29.1 28.2 28.0 25.1 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 157 159 164 172 170 171 172 156 143 141 110 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 144 144 150 156 154 161 153 141 130 126 98 88 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 8 7 6 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 42 44 44 44 48 49 51 59 57 56 54 50 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -99 -100 -92 -88 -81 -59 -42 37 29 12 -37 -41 -34 200 MB DIV -3 17 -8 -10 -10 -10 0 47 43 48 19 9 13 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 2 5 0 1 2 2 2 1 -15 9 LAND (KM) 432 411 377 374 357 228 164 302 375 385 582 572 636 LAT (DEG N) 23.7 23.9 24.1 24.4 24.9 26.0 27.4 29.2 31.5 34.2 36.9 38.8 40.2 LONG(DEG W) 71.7 73.0 74.1 75.2 76.4 77.9 78.5 77.6 75.3 72.0 67.7 62.7 57.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 11 11 8 9 12 18 21 22 22 22 HEAT CONTENT 39 54 66 72 87 70 69 65 33 18 23 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 16. 22. 27. 30. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 7. 2. -4. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 14. 22. 32. 38. 40. 38. 35. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.7 71.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942019 INVEST 07/21/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.42 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.86 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 60.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.39 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 209.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 17.5% 12.2% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 15.4% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 13.6% 8.7% 3.7% 1.1% 7.0% 16.2% 22.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 10.9% 7.1% 3.8% 0.4% 2.4% 10.5% 7.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942019 INVEST 07/21/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942019 INVEST 07/21/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 30 32 39 47 57 63 65 63 60 56 18HR AGO 25 24 25 28 30 37 45 55 61 63 61 58 54 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 33 41 51 57 59 57 54 50 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 32 42 48 50 48 45 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT