* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942019 07/21/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 47 53 60 63 62 59 55 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 47 53 60 63 62 59 55 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 30 33 37 42 47 52 53 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 8 8 12 5 13 9 6 18 31 35 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -6 -5 -3 -3 -5 -3 -3 -1 -1 2 4 -3 SHEAR DIR 266 276 289 291 315 320 309 351 290 229 239 241 254 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.6 30.5 29.8 29.5 28.4 27.5 26.6 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 152 155 159 162 170 166 162 146 134 124 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 138 138 141 144 143 155 146 146 132 121 110 101 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 12 12 11 12 10 8 7 5 4 2 700-500 MB RH 38 42 43 43 43 49 48 57 58 56 54 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 4 3 3 4 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -109 -95 -97 -92 -89 -64 -65 19 37 34 -29 -44 -42 200 MB DIV -13 -7 13 -4 -10 10 3 39 56 58 14 26 7 700-850 TADV 2 0 -1 -2 1 1 0 -1 8 -7 -6 4 -4 LAND (KM) 428 433 431 406 397 342 222 240 426 369 568 611 577 LAT (DEG N) 23.6 23.7 23.9 24.2 24.5 25.5 26.6 28.2 30.3 32.8 35.5 38.0 40.0 LONG(DEG W) 70.2 71.4 72.6 73.7 74.8 76.8 77.9 78.0 76.3 73.3 69.6 65.1 60.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 11 9 7 10 15 19 22 22 22 HEAT CONTENT 42 35 42 56 58 64 67 54 42 19 14 7 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 16. 22. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 7. 3. -3. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 22. 28. 35. 38. 37. 34. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.6 70.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942019 INVEST 07/21/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.31 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.78 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 64.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.35 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 218.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 18.5% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.4% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 22.7% 17.7% 10.7% 3.4% 10.5% 15.1% 31.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 14.5% 10.6% 3.6% 1.1% 3.6% 10.2% 10.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942019 INVEST 07/21/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942019 INVEST 07/21/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 33 40 47 53 60 63 62 59 55 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 38 45 51 58 61 60 57 53 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 33 40 46 53 56 55 52 48 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 32 38 45 48 47 44 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT