* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942018 10/16/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 28 34 40 49 56 61 65 70 74 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 26 26 34 41 50 57 62 65 70 75 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 25 26 26 31 34 38 43 47 52 54 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 7 5 6 11 17 14 15 22 22 19 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 1 2 5 0 -1 0 -5 -6 -4 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 287 267 255 293 175 124 107 98 95 91 90 84 59 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.3 29.9 29.0 29.4 29.8 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 28.7 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 168 169 173 169 153 159 166 154 155 155 155 145 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 172 171 173 168 150 157 164 149 149 146 147 139 119 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -53.5 -52.8 -53.6 -52.9 -53.5 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 8 6 5 6 4 6 5 6 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 73 75 75 80 81 82 81 76 73 70 75 72 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 90 77 81 91 86 78 71 48 28 19 2 -12 -22 200 MB DIV 43 41 67 82 73 92 57 47 46 82 78 78 80 700-850 TADV -3 2 0 0 12 8 11 6 1 2 2 0 -1 LAND (KM) 30 -109 -212 -100 -14 58 224 372 475 520 590 628 590 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.3 16.1 15.2 14.0 13.1 12.7 12.6 12.0 11.4 11.3 LONG(DEG W) 88.4 90.0 91.4 92.8 94.1 96.4 98.3 99.8 101.2 102.0 102.2 101.7 100.6 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 13 13 12 12 10 7 6 3 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 44 31 13 31 14 17 21 29 29 26 15 8 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -4. -2. 4. 13. 20. 26. 31. 37. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 24. 31. 36. 40. 45. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.0 88.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942018 INVEST 10/16/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.17 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 45.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.88 2.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.97 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 21.0% 16.5% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.2% 48.7% 30.9% 26.8% 17.0% 45.6% 57.6% 76.6% Bayesian: 1.1% 11.2% 2.6% 0.5% 0.3% 2.3% 3.8% 51.0% Consensus: 5.6% 27.0% 16.7% 12.7% 5.7% 16.0% 24.5% 42.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942018 INVEST 10/16/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942018 INVEST 10/16/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 25 26 26 34 41 50 57 62 65 70 75 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 26 34 41 50 57 62 65 70 75 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 30 37 46 53 58 61 66 71 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 23 30 39 46 51 54 59 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT