* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942018 10/16/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 27 33 39 47 55 61 66 74 80 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 25 26 26 33 41 48 54 60 68 74 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 25 26 26 31 34 38 42 47 53 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 7 6 5 9 16 17 13 15 10 7 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 2 1 1 0 0 -2 -2 -5 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 293 288 287 265 294 135 119 113 109 109 94 77 74 SST (C) 29.4 29.8 30.0 30.2 29.8 28.7 30.0 29.7 29.3 29.1 29.5 29.3 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 160 168 171 173 167 148 170 164 156 152 159 155 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 170 172 173 166 145 170 162 153 145 153 149 141 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 9 8 7 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 72 72 75 76 79 80 85 78 76 72 77 76 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 104 88 77 81 93 78 79 61 34 26 9 26 26 200 MB DIV 50 46 41 69 71 80 64 33 41 79 75 88 95 700-850 TADV -5 -3 0 0 -2 11 10 11 1 1 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 20 31 -102 -211 -147 -28 91 262 392 474 543 641 741 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.7 16.7 16.3 15.1 14.1 13.6 13.5 13.3 12.8 12.2 LONG(DEG W) 86.7 88.3 89.8 91.2 92.6 95.3 97.6 99.6 101.4 103.0 104.2 105.4 106.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 13 13 13 12 10 9 6 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 47 46 32 11 15 24 23 31 61 33 24 31 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -5. -3. 3. 12. 19. 26. 31. 37. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 5. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 14. 22. 30. 36. 41. 49. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.9 86.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942018 INVEST 10/16/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.19 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 55.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.87 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.97 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.39 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 20.1% 15.7% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 0.0% Logistic: 6.1% 29.1% 14.9% 4.8% 1.9% 11.4% 42.5% 67.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 1.4% 47.7% Consensus: 4.0% 17.4% 10.4% 4.7% 0.7% 4.0% 18.9% 38.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942018 INVEST 10/16/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942018 INVEST 10/16/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 24 25 26 26 33 41 48 54 60 68 74 18HR AGO 25 24 23 24 25 25 32 40 47 53 59 67 73 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 23 30 38 45 51 57 65 71 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 16 23 31 38 44 50 58 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT