* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942018 10/16/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 38 44 51 56 60 64 68 73 78 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 32 30 28 27 32 36 40 44 49 54 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 32 30 28 27 31 35 39 44 49 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 13 9 9 5 13 15 11 11 12 14 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 0 0 3 0 4 2 1 1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 284 289 291 293 273 99 141 128 116 121 117 113 95 SST (C) 29.0 29.4 29.5 29.9 29.9 29.3 29.7 30.4 29.3 29.4 30.2 30.1 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 160 162 170 170 158 165 173 157 158 170 169 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 160 164 172 171 156 165 173 155 155 166 161 155 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -52.7 -53.3 -52.8 -53.6 -52.9 -53.3 -52.7 -53.1 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 9 9 5 6 5 8 5 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 70 71 72 72 73 80 83 83 77 73 73 75 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 101 103 87 75 82 97 87 74 41 20 40 32 43 200 MB DIV 42 62 52 37 52 67 72 25 27 34 38 48 84 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -1 2 3 15 16 5 3 3 4 3 LAND (KM) -29 34 67 -82 -154 -96 -104 93 269 382 466 563 655 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.3 17.4 16.7 15.6 14.9 14.7 14.6 14.3 13.7 LONG(DEG W) 84.7 86.0 87.5 89.1 90.7 93.8 96.5 99.2 101.6 103.8 105.4 106.6 107.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 16 15 14 14 13 11 10 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 58 52 46 60 4 8 29 23 26 29 36 34 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 13. 19. 25. 30. 36. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 14. 21. 26. 30. 34. 38. 43. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.6 84.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942018 INVEST 10/16/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 6.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.28 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.64 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 82.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.84 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.94 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.37 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 3.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 52% is 9.6 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 36.1% 20.7% 12.4% 10.0% 14.3% 14.6% 51.6% Logistic: 15.4% 51.3% 33.8% 18.3% 9.4% 36.1% 61.4% 82.6% Bayesian: 2.4% 32.9% 9.1% 1.6% 0.8% 7.6% 19.7% 80.6% Consensus: 8.6% 40.1% 21.2% 10.8% 6.7% 19.3% 31.9% 71.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942018 INVEST 10/16/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942018 INVEST 10/16/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 37 32 30 28 27 32 36 40 44 49 54 18HR AGO 30 29 32 27 25 23 22 27 31 35 39 44 49 12HR AGO 30 27 26 21 19 17 16 21 25 29 33 38 43 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 18 16 15 20 24 28 32 37 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT