* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942018 10/15/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 36 38 39 42 47 53 57 61 65 69 72 V (KT) LAND 30 34 36 38 32 28 27 27 32 36 40 45 47 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 37 40 34 29 27 27 32 38 44 49 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 13 11 8 4 7 5 4 8 9 10 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -3 0 1 3 1 3 5 5 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 302 279 286 286 296 255 161 87 100 145 200 222 260 SST (C) 28.6 29.1 29.5 29.6 29.9 29.8 29.3 30.3 29.8 30.1 30.2 30.0 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 155 162 164 170 167 158 173 167 172 171 169 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 155 164 167 172 166 156 173 167 171 168 159 156 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 8 10 6 6 5 6 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 67 69 71 71 71 80 81 84 75 68 60 59 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 8 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 99 108 104 85 80 93 84 76 53 21 -4 14 2 200 MB DIV 29 44 59 50 25 75 97 45 31 19 24 18 46 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -2 -3 4 7 -6 -4 4 6 -2 5 LAND (KM) 31 14 70 34 -149 -95 -130 -59 104 195 258 331 362 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.0 16.4 16.9 17.3 17.7 17.5 16.8 16.5 16.7 17.4 18.3 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 83.5 84.8 86.3 87.9 89.6 92.6 95.5 98.5 101.5 104.1 106.3 108.0 109.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 16 16 16 14 14 15 13 12 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 37 43 53 46 16 22 13 36 25 18 34 26 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 19. 25. 30. 36. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 9. 12. 17. 23. 27. 31. 35. 39. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.5 83.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942018 INVEST 10/15/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.68 6.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.25 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.23 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 83.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.84 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.94 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 59% is 11.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 19.8% 15.2% 10.0% 7.6% 12.3% 13.1% 59.2% Logistic: 8.4% 40.8% 23.9% 20.1% 10.2% 40.1% 64.6% 89.4% Bayesian: 6.1% 9.4% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 6.5% 7.7% 64.3% Consensus: 6.8% 23.4% 13.6% 10.1% 6.0% 19.6% 28.5% 71.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942018 INVEST 10/15/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942018 INVEST 10/15/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 36 38 32 28 27 27 32 36 40 45 47 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 27 23 22 22 27 31 35 40 42 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 22 18 17 17 22 26 30 35 37 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT