* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942018 10/15/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 31 32 33 38 44 48 54 56 62 66 V (KT) LAND 25 28 25 26 29 27 27 27 30 35 38 43 48 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 25 26 30 27 27 27 31 34 39 44 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 9 9 13 13 8 5 6 6 6 5 3 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -3 -1 1 7 -1 7 5 3 7 3 SHEAR DIR 308 312 292 286 289 263 235 154 104 111 169 251 235 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.8 29.3 29.5 29.9 29.4 29.3 30.4 29.4 30.4 30.4 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 150 158 162 169 160 159 173 160 172 171 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 140 149 159 164 170 158 160 173 160 172 171 163 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -52.7 -53.3 -52.7 -53.6 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 7 9 6 6 4 7 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 68 69 71 73 73 76 80 84 82 76 71 67 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 5 4 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 88 99 111 111 90 82 105 81 75 34 -8 1 25 200 MB DIV 27 26 38 48 42 51 93 87 36 25 19 48 26 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -1 0 6 11 5 -4 -1 0 -1 2 LAND (KM) 129 21 -41 -14 32 -171 -144 -94 67 219 311 378 464 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.9 17.1 16.6 15.9 15.7 16.0 16.7 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 82.0 83.0 84.3 85.7 87.2 90.3 93.2 96.2 99.3 102.2 105.0 107.2 108.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 13 15 15 15 14 15 14 14 13 10 7 HEAT CONTENT 24 33 53 45 46 15 12 28 22 23 20 32 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 5. 13. 20. 26. 31. 38. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -8. -9. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 13. 19. 23. 29. 31. 37. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.7 82.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942018 INVEST 10/15/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.26 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 68.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.86 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.95 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 17.9% 13.7% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 35.5% 18.8% 14.6% 8.4% 35.4% 57.1% 90.8% Bayesian: 1.8% 10.7% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 2.0% 1.9% 63.9% Consensus: 4.0% 21.4% 11.3% 7.8% 2.8% 12.5% 23.4% 51.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942018 INVEST 10/15/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942018 INVEST 10/15/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 25 26 29 27 27 27 30 35 38 43 48 18HR AGO 25 24 21 22 25 23 23 23 26 31 34 39 44 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 25 23 23 23 26 31 34 39 44 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 16 16 16 19 24 27 32 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT