* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942018 10/15/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 25 26 32 37 43 48 55 63 71 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 22 24 25 27 27 27 34 41 49 57 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 20 23 25 26 27 27 31 34 39 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 10 8 12 9 12 7 10 13 8 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -2 -4 0 0 4 3 2 2 1 4 SHEAR DIR 315 322 315 304 284 293 279 196 125 110 100 102 125 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 29.0 29.7 30.0 29.5 30.1 30.5 29.1 29.8 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 144 146 153 166 171 162 173 173 154 165 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 138 140 143 152 167 172 163 173 173 151 160 169 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 9 8 9 7 7 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 70 70 71 73 74 75 78 80 84 79 78 73 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 6 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 83 87 95 104 105 85 102 99 94 73 40 39 47 200 MB DIV 40 31 25 26 34 35 79 95 59 23 30 72 76 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 -2 0 2 4 15 11 13 0 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 229 142 43 -65 -99 -1 -180 -87 -13 147 287 336 368 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.0 14.3 14.6 15.0 15.8 16.5 16.6 15.9 15.2 14.9 15.2 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 81.1 81.9 82.8 83.8 85.0 87.7 90.6 93.6 96.7 99.5 102.0 104.0 105.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 10 11 13 15 14 15 14 13 11 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 32 35 17 42 19 31 20 23 27 26 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 4. 13. 20. 27. 33. 39. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 12. 17. 23. 28. 35. 43. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.9 81.1 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942018 INVEST 10/15/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.88 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.93 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 34.5% 18.2% 10.7% 6.4% 26.9% 53.6% 90.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 7.8% 1.7% 0.2% 0.1% 1.0% 1.2% 49.6% Consensus: 1.7% 14.1% 6.6% 3.6% 2.2% 9.3% 18.3% 46.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942018 INVEST 10/15/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942018 INVEST 10/15/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 22 24 25 27 27 27 34 41 49 57 18HR AGO 20 19 21 20 22 23 25 25 25 32 39 47 55 12HR AGO 20 17 16 15 17 18 20 20 20 27 34 42 50 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT