* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942018 10/15/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 25 27 29 33 41 44 48 54 61 68 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 25 24 26 27 27 27 32 38 45 52 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 21 25 27 27 27 30 33 36 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 11 12 8 7 12 10 7 6 15 13 12 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 -3 -3 -4 0 8 0 1 -2 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 300 313 321 328 304 280 274 239 140 124 116 113 110 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 29.5 29.9 29.9 29.1 30.2 29.6 28.8 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 144 144 146 162 169 170 155 173 162 148 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 136 139 140 143 162 171 171 156 173 159 142 161 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -52.7 -53.2 -52.7 -53.5 -52.8 -53.2 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 7 9 6 6 5 7 5 8 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 70 72 76 75 82 84 82 77 74 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 83 89 100 107 107 95 113 99 74 71 52 53 200 MB DIV 50 52 43 39 45 37 54 88 88 61 55 55 82 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -3 -2 1 4 13 9 15 6 2 1 LAND (KM) 313 227 129 22 -63 -16 -62 -154 -29 78 224 319 360 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.0 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.6 16.4 16.7 16.2 15.4 15.0 15.0 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 80.3 81.1 82.0 83.0 84.0 86.5 89.4 92.5 95.6 98.4 100.8 102.8 104.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 10 10 11 14 15 15 15 13 10 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 27 24 25 31 35 44 51 14 26 25 22 28 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 20. 27. 33. 39. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 13. 21. 24. 28. 34. 41. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.0 80.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942018 INVEST 10/15/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.88 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 30.1% 14.8% 6.4% 3.0% 19.7% 42.2% 84.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 10.3% 2.4% 0.2% 0.1% 1.2% 0.9% 34.7% Consensus: 1.3% 13.5% 5.7% 2.2% 1.0% 6.9% 14.4% 39.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942018 INVEST 10/15/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942018 INVEST 10/15/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 23 25 24 26 27 27 27 32 38 45 52 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 21 23 24 24 24 29 35 42 49 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 17 19 20 20 20 25 31 38 45 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT