* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942018 09/08/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 26 28 33 40 48 55 59 62 62 60 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 26 28 33 40 48 55 59 62 40 31 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 29 35 42 50 56 60 40 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 3 1 2 5 10 15 19 17 24 30 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -1 -3 -2 -5 -4 -3 -2 -4 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 239 266 300 124 199 215 204 220 222 253 229 235 221 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 27.5 26.9 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 145 146 146 146 149 148 146 143 130 123 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 119 117 118 117 117 123 126 124 120 108 102 99 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.6 -56.6 -56.5 -56.2 -55.7 -55.1 -54.5 -54.0 -53.7 -53.1 -52.8 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 9 10 11 11 10 10 6 10 700-500 MB RH 63 61 61 60 60 58 56 52 51 56 59 57 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 5 5 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -13 -19 -11 -3 -11 32 33 32 21 34 34 31 200 MB DIV -19 -49 -57 -22 -33 -36 -17 3 42 5 53 19 8 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 1 1 0 -2 1 2 4 11 6 8 LAND (KM) 867 895 923 953 979 975 900 720 488 253 62 -118 -288 LAT (DEG N) 31.7 31.8 31.9 31.8 31.8 31.7 31.7 32.0 33.1 34.5 36.0 36.7 36.3 LONG(DEG W) 67.7 67.3 66.9 66.6 66.3 66.4 67.3 69.3 71.4 73.4 75.2 77.3 79.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 2 2 6 10 11 11 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 24 22 20 19 18 19 23 29 22 71 12 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 14. 19. 24. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. 8. 5. 1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 8. 13. 20. 28. 35. 39. 42. 42. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 31.7 67.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942018 INVEST 09/08/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.95 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 68.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.86 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.62 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -36.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 15.5% 14.7% 3.6% 0.9% 4.5% 5.3% 7.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 5.2% 4.9% 1.2% 0.3% 1.5% 1.8% 2.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942018 INVEST 09/08/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942018 INVEST 09/08/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 23 26 28 33 40 48 55 59 62 40 31 18HR AGO 20 19 20 23 25 30 37 45 52 56 59 37 28 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 21 26 33 41 48 52 55 33 24 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT