* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942018 09/08/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 29 33 39 47 53 56 59 59 58 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 29 33 39 47 53 56 59 59 58 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 29 34 40 46 52 56 58 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 6 3 1 5 8 16 19 24 23 32 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -4 -3 -1 -4 -3 -5 -4 -4 -6 -5 -10 SHEAR DIR 282 274 277 312 4 96 194 190 203 223 206 189 171 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 145 146 147 147 149 149 148 150 152 152 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 119 118 119 119 117 121 126 126 129 130 131 126 200 MB T (C) -56.8 -56.8 -56.7 -56.8 -56.8 -56.0 -55.7 -54.6 -54.2 -53.1 -53.1 -51.9 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 8 9 10 11 11 9 11 9 700-500 MB RH 63 64 61 61 62 58 56 54 51 53 55 57 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 4 5 5 5 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -15 -13 -17 -15 -16 13 37 36 33 32 37 31 200 MB DIV -22 -9 -33 -53 -27 -51 0 -10 37 32 14 34 20 700-850 TADV 2 3 1 2 1 0 -4 0 1 4 14 13 -5 LAND (KM) 822 826 853 886 928 972 944 836 641 441 248 201 244 LAT (DEG N) 31.5 31.7 31.8 31.8 31.8 31.6 31.5 31.4 31.8 32.4 32.8 31.9 30.4 LONG(DEG W) 68.4 68.2 67.8 67.4 66.9 66.5 66.9 68.3 70.5 72.7 75.3 77.8 78.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 3 1 4 8 9 11 11 12 6 HEAT CONTENT 27 26 25 23 20 19 21 27 23 26 35 58 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 14. 19. 24. 28. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 10. 7. 4. -1. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 19. 27. 33. 36. 39. 39. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 31.5 68.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942018 INVEST 09/08/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.92 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.27 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.86 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.62 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -28.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 7.5% 5.2% 0.9% 0.2% 2.1% 4.4% 6.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 2.5% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 1.5% 2.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942018 INVEST 09/08/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942018 INVEST 09/08/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 24 26 29 33 39 47 53 56 59 59 58 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 26 30 36 44 50 53 56 56 55 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 25 31 39 45 48 51 51 50 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT