* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942018 09/08/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 30 36 42 50 55 60 62 65 65 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 30 36 42 50 55 60 62 65 40 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 30 35 42 49 57 63 66 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 6 7 8 6 1 3 9 16 23 19 24 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -5 -4 -5 -2 -4 -3 -4 -3 -1 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 282 275 266 283 309 41 170 178 220 223 245 225 217 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 27.9 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 147 145 145 146 146 148 149 148 149 136 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 118 119 117 117 116 118 123 126 126 125 114 111 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -56.7 -56.7 -56.6 -56.6 -56.3 -55.8 -55.1 -54.4 -54.0 -53.8 -53.1 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 10 11 7 700-500 MB RH 61 62 62 60 60 61 57 55 51 52 54 58 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 3 4 4 5 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -28 -8 -11 -19 -4 -17 9 26 42 13 39 43 200 MB DIV 0 -18 9 -56 -65 -22 -28 0 11 42 -1 4 4 700-850 TADV 2 2 3 1 2 2 0 -2 0 3 3 8 13 LAND (KM) 787 759 770 788 812 859 870 798 648 448 227 9 -156 LAT (DEG N) 31.2 31.5 31.7 31.8 31.8 31.7 31.5 31.5 31.6 32.5 33.6 34.7 35.1 LONG(DEG W) 69.1 69.2 68.9 68.6 68.3 67.8 67.8 68.7 70.6 72.5 74.5 76.6 79.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 1 2 6 8 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 29 27 26 26 26 25 26 27 24 29 52 27 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 23. 27. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 10. 7. 3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 16. 22. 30. 35. 40. 43. 45. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 31.2 69.1 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942018 INVEST 09/08/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 73.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.85 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.62 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -26.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 10.7% 7.9% 1.9% 0.5% 2.8% 3.3% 5.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 3.6% 2.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.9% 1.1% 2.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942018 INVEST 09/08/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942018 INVEST 09/08/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 25 28 30 36 42 50 55 60 62 65 40 18HR AGO 20 19 22 25 27 33 39 47 52 57 59 62 37 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 21 27 33 41 46 51 53 56 31 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT