* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942018 09/07/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 35 42 49 55 60 63 65 65 66 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 31 35 42 49 55 60 63 65 65 66 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 26 31 38 46 54 62 68 70 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 13 9 8 6 4 5 18 19 25 27 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -7 -8 -7 -6 -5 -2 -5 -2 -3 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 244 258 274 262 267 318 111 164 160 193 191 188 146 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 145 143 143 145 146 149 151 152 152 156 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 123 118 115 116 117 117 123 129 133 132 134 133 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -56.2 -56.5 -56.7 -56.7 -56.8 -56.6 -55.8 -55.0 -54.3 -53.9 -53.4 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.7 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 8 7 8 9 10 11 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 59 57 59 61 62 61 59 54 53 51 54 59 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -39 -41 -29 -9 -21 -8 -27 37 36 38 33 54 200 MB DIV 12 2 13 -1 -27 -77 -64 -33 -9 15 49 9 47 700-850 TADV 2 1 2 1 2 1 0 -1 0 3 6 10 -1 LAND (KM) 882 830 801 799 819 888 942 936 844 689 526 449 354 LAT (DEG N) 30.8 31.5 32.0 32.2 32.3 32.1 31.7 31.2 30.8 30.5 30.6 30.1 28.9 LONG(DEG W) 68.2 68.3 68.3 68.2 67.9 67.2 66.8 67.2 68.7 71.2 73.9 76.2 77.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 4 2 3 3 2 5 9 12 11 9 6 HEAT CONTENT 31 27 24 22 21 22 21 26 32 27 34 39 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 10 CX,CY: -3/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 14. 19. 24. 28. 31. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 7. 4. 0. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 22. 29. 35. 40. 43. 45. 45. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 30.8 68.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942018 INVEST 09/07/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 85.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.84 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.1% 30.7% 19.7% 6.2% 3.2% 14.8% 13.0% 16.7% Bayesian: 0.8% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 10.8% 6.7% 2.1% 1.1% 4.9% 4.3% 5.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942018 INVEST 09/07/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942018 INVEST 09/07/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 27 31 35 42 49 55 60 63 65 65 66 18HR AGO 20 19 23 27 31 38 45 51 56 59 61 61 62 12HR AGO 20 17 16 20 24 31 38 44 49 52 54 54 55 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT