* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942018 09/07/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 32 39 45 53 59 65 69 71 72 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 32 39 45 53 59 65 69 71 72 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 30 36 43 52 63 74 80 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 14 11 9 10 4 3 3 13 18 26 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -7 -8 -8 -6 -4 -7 -6 -5 -1 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 248 241 257 267 263 284 360 271 204 215 230 197 174 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 148 145 145 145 146 146 150 151 151 155 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 128 122 117 116 117 118 118 125 128 128 131 131 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -56.3 -56.2 -56.3 -56.6 -56.5 -56.7 -56.1 -55.7 -54.8 -54.7 -53.6 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 10 11 11 11 9 700-500 MB RH 60 61 61 61 63 62 60 57 54 52 53 56 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 2 2 3 2 3 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -26 -29 -26 -18 -13 -9 -24 -37 29 25 33 39 200 MB DIV 20 18 8 21 9 -80 -47 -59 -5 -19 40 21 52 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 2 1 1 0 0 -2 -1 2 5 9 LAND (KM) 895 792 720 692 681 728 792 811 771 672 523 388 295 LAT (DEG N) 30.0 30.8 31.4 31.7 32.0 32.0 31.6 31.3 30.9 30.8 31.0 31.5 31.2 LONG(DEG W) 68.8 69.4 69.8 69.9 69.8 69.2 68.7 68.7 69.6 71.1 73.2 75.1 77.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 5 3 2 3 2 2 6 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 37 33 27 25 24 24 27 29 32 25 31 38 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 14. 19. 24. 28. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 8. 5. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 19. 25. 33. 39. 45. 49. 51. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 30.0 68.8 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942018 INVEST 09/07/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 83.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.84 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.66 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 31.4% 17.2% 4.4% 2.6% 14.0% 12.2% 24.7% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 10.7% 5.8% 1.5% 0.9% 4.7% 4.1% 8.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942018 INVEST 09/07/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942018 INVEST 09/07/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 25 29 32 39 45 53 59 65 69 71 72 18HR AGO 20 19 22 26 29 36 42 50 56 62 66 68 69 12HR AGO 20 17 16 20 23 30 36 44 50 56 60 62 63 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT