* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942017 10/31/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 38 37 34 31 28 24 22 19 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 38 37 34 31 28 24 22 19 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 28 30 32 34 37 38 39 38 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 33 30 28 27 25 28 31 30 32 32 37 31 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 -1 -3 -5 -4 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 16 7 354 348 338 314 305 294 288 281 273 272 282 SST (C) 25.8 25.8 25.6 25.5 25.4 25.3 25.6 26.1 27.1 27.6 27.7 27.5 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 107 109 109 109 109 108 111 115 125 129 129 128 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 90 93 94 95 96 95 97 101 109 109 109 110 106 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.5 -56.3 -56.9 -56.8 -55.9 -55.1 -55.6 -56.0 -56.6 -57.1 -57.0 -56.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.6 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.0 0.1 -0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 7 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 48 49 48 50 48 52 53 46 37 34 34 35 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 8 6 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 50 48 44 40 50 54 68 76 77 52 29 25 1 200 MB DIV 0 -16 -15 -1 23 10 -36 -15 -13 -3 -9 -2 3 700-850 TADV 6 5 6 3 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 0 1 1 2 LAND (KM) 2044 2020 1948 1866 1767 1662 1640 1631 1375 1224 1201 1309 1473 LAT (DEG N) 29.1 29.3 29.9 30.5 31.2 31.8 31.5 30.3 28.6 27.3 26.9 27.5 28.6 LONG(DEG W) 46.3 46.4 46.7 47.4 48.5 51.3 54.2 56.4 58.2 58.8 58.6 57.7 56.6 STM SPEED (KT) 1 4 7 10 12 12 12 12 9 5 3 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 13 14 10 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 19. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -5. -12. -18. -25. -30. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 12. 9. 6. 3. -1. -3. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 29.1 46.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942017 INVEST 10/31/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.06 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.46 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.36 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.13 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 156.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.78 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 6.4% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 2.4% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942017 INVEST 10/31/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942017 INVEST 10/31/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 34 38 37 34 31 28 24 22 19 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 35 34 31 28 25 21 19 16 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 30 29 26 23 20 16 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 22 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT