* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942017 10/31/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 37 37 34 31 28 24 21 19 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 37 37 34 31 28 24 21 19 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 28 30 32 35 38 40 40 40 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 30 28 26 24 25 30 31 30 31 37 33 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -3 -2 -1 -6 -2 -3 0 0 0 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 15 15 3 350 343 325 306 297 288 286 274 274 272 SST (C) 25.8 25.8 25.6 25.4 25.2 25.1 25.3 25.7 26.6 27.5 27.7 27.6 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 107 108 108 108 107 107 109 112 121 129 129 129 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 89 91 93 94 94 94 96 98 106 111 108 110 107 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.4 -55.7 -56.5 -57.1 -56.7 -55.4 -55.3 -55.8 -56.5 -57.0 -57.1 -56.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.6 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.2 0.5 -0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 48 50 50 48 48 47 52 49 40 33 32 34 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 7 6 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 57 50 47 44 36 41 59 66 72 53 41 22 10 200 MB DIV 3 5 -16 -14 2 23 -16 -22 -20 -8 1 -8 8 700-850 TADV 9 7 4 4 3 -1 0 -3 -3 0 0 1 4 LAND (KM) 2039 2033 1990 1894 1798 1635 1599 1598 1487 1263 1170 1224 1364 LAT (DEG N) 29.2 29.3 29.7 30.5 31.2 32.2 32.3 31.4 29.6 28.0 27.1 27.3 28.2 LONG(DEG W) 46.1 45.9 45.9 46.3 47.1 49.8 53.0 55.7 57.8 59.2 59.4 58.8 57.8 STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 6 9 11 13 13 12 12 7 2 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 9 17 13 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 8. 12. 15. 18. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 2. -4. -10. -17. -24. -29. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -14. -16. -19. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 12. 9. 6. 3. -1. -4. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 29.2 46.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942017 INVEST 10/31/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.12 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.54 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.35 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.12 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 153.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.79 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 7.9% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 2.9% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942017 INVEST 10/31/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942017 INVEST 10/31/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 33 37 37 34 31 28 24 21 19 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 34 34 31 28 25 21 18 16 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 29 29 26 23 20 16 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT