* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942017 10/30/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 30 31 30 30 28 28 34 35 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 30 31 30 30 28 28 34 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 23 23 24 26 27 30 34 39 45 51 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 21 29 37 32 31 25 27 21 20 23 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -2 -8 -4 0 -4 -5 -3 -3 -1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 352 352 353 356 350 339 324 318 304 292 278 265 258 SST (C) 25.7 25.7 25.6 25.5 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.3 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 109 108 107 106 106 107 107 107 107 105 107 106 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 94 91 90 90 91 92 92 91 89 86 91 91 90 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.2 -55.4 -55.4 -55.6 -56.4 -56.1 -55.1 -55.3 -56.1 -57.5 -58.5 -59.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.5 2.0 1.6 1.7 1.2 1.6 1.9 1.7 1.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 49 48 49 46 43 44 49 57 57 56 54 52 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 11 11 10 11 11 10 9 9 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 51 63 59 54 47 44 50 46 70 66 61 26 -11 200 MB DIV 12 -5 5 -16 -22 6 26 -1 0 5 27 30 27 700-850 TADV 0 -2 0 -3 -1 2 2 1 1 1 4 3 5 LAND (KM) 1969 1993 1983 1948 1905 1816 1739 1719 1735 1757 1748 1691 1618 LAT (DEG N) 29.7 29.6 29.8 30.1 30.4 30.9 31.3 31.3 31.1 30.9 31.0 31.6 32.5 LONG(DEG W) 46.7 46.2 45.8 45.9 46.3 47.7 49.5 51.2 52.1 52.2 51.8 50.6 48.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 4 5 7 8 6 3 0 4 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):160/ 10 CX,CY: 3/ -8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 469 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 3. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 2. -4. -9. -13. -18. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. -11. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 3. 9. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 29.7 46.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942017 INVEST 10/30/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.14 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.47 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.92 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.34 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.12 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 156.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.78 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 99.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.01 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 7.7% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 2.8% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942017 INVEST 10/30/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942017 INVEST 10/30/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 29 30 31 30 30 28 28 34 35 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 29 30 29 29 27 27 33 34 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 25 26 25 25 23 23 29 30 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 18 19 18 18 16 16 22 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT