* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942017 10/30/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 36 36 32 27 22 19 17 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 36 36 32 27 22 19 17 16 DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 34 35 34 32 30 30 32 35 39 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 16 21 33 41 42 41 37 28 21 21 21 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 0 -5 -8 -2 -1 -4 -5 -3 -5 0 0 SHEAR DIR 337 333 331 346 357 349 338 334 326 301 277 265 275 SST (C) 25.4 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.4 26.0 26.7 26.9 26.6 26.0 25.2 24.4 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 106 105 102 105 108 114 119 118 118 113 107 102 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 91 88 84 88 93 100 103 98 100 98 93 90 86 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.2 -55.4 -55.4 -55.4 -55.1 -55.2 -54.9 -54.8 -55.5 -57.1 -59.1 -60.5 200 MB VXT (C) 2.1 1.3 1.5 2.1 2.0 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.5 0.7 0.3 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 49 47 45 44 40 37 43 53 60 64 66 66 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 10 9 8 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 35 46 52 44 48 46 29 29 41 41 39 36 21 200 MB DIV 1 7 -10 -4 -16 2 2 1 -5 17 18 20 27 700-850 TADV 4 0 -4 0 0 8 0 -1 2 1 3 1 7 LAND (KM) 1854 1859 1868 1862 1865 1917 1887 1830 1891 1872 1689 1526 1412 LAT (DEG N) 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.6 29.7 28.5 28.1 28.7 30.0 31.8 33.7 35.8 LONG(DEG W) 47.0 46.4 46.1 46.3 47.0 49.3 50.9 51.3 51.0 50.2 49.2 47.3 44.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 0 4 8 11 7 1 6 9 11 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 8 6 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 3. -3. -11. -17. -22. -26. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. -11. -14. -16. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 2. -3. -8. -11. -13. -14. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 30.7 47.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942017 INVEST 10/30/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.12 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.58 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.27 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.12 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 195.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.74 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 10.0% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 3.6% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942017 INVEST 10/30/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942017 INVEST 10/30/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 36 36 32 27 22 19 17 16 DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 33 33 29 24 19 16 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 28 28 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT