* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942017 09/05/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 43 52 63 70 77 78 79 78 78 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 43 52 63 70 77 78 79 78 78 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 40 47 56 64 72 76 73 68 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 4 6 7 7 7 9 9 13 18 22 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 1 -1 -2 -4 -5 -5 0 6 5 4 6 SHEAR DIR 358 325 276 271 274 242 286 271 249 238 255 260 335 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.1 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 153 149 148 146 146 152 152 155 158 153 150 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 154 151 151 150 150 151 148 154 154 144 140 146 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -53.8 -54.2 -54.7 -54.5 -54.0 -54.4 -53.5 -53.9 -53.2 -52.9 -52.3 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 73 71 69 69 67 66 66 66 66 60 61 59 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 17 21 22 25 26 27 27 27 850 MB ENV VOR 14 10 13 11 19 14 15 26 21 35 30 15 -16 200 MB DIV 48 53 58 62 25 32 30 68 90 109 70 38 15 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -3 0 0 1 -3 0 6 7 17 21 11 LAND (KM) 1638 1600 1548 1471 1380 1177 986 956 935 918 801 738 733 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.5 13.2 13.7 14.0 14.2 13.7 14.1 15.6 17.5 18.6 20.0 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 38.5 39.4 40.6 42.1 43.8 47.2 50.1 52.1 53.9 56.0 58.1 58.9 60.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 14 16 17 17 11 10 14 13 9 10 15 HEAT CONTENT 23 26 24 22 32 31 31 53 41 59 60 51 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 19.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 26. 30. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 8. 12. 12. 13. 13. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 22. 33. 40. 47. 48. 49. 48. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.8 38.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942017 INVEST 09/05/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.86 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.16 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.36 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.84 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.37 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 95.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.84 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 8.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.3 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 28.9% 15.9% 9.4% 8.0% 14.5% 18.2% 31.5% Logistic: 14.4% 48.6% 31.2% 18.4% 11.1% 36.3% 42.1% 47.5% Bayesian: 7.1% 44.0% 19.1% 4.8% 1.0% 16.8% 3.5% 3.7% Consensus: 9.6% 40.5% 22.1% 10.9% 6.7% 22.5% 21.3% 27.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942017 INVEST 09/05/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942017 INVEST 09/05/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 40 43 52 63 70 77 78 79 78 78 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 39 48 59 66 73 74 75 74 74 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 33 42 53 60 67 68 69 68 68 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 32 43 50 57 58 59 58 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT