* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942017 09/05/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 43 53 63 71 77 82 82 82 84 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 43 53 63 71 77 82 82 82 84 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 46 57 68 74 75 73 69 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 13 10 9 9 3 12 10 13 7 20 21 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -2 -3 -3 -5 -1 0 5 3 7 4 SHEAR DIR 11 19 29 8 7 358 258 250 244 250 241 244 290 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.5 28.9 29.3 29.3 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 150 151 152 149 146 147 152 155 157 152 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 149 149 151 152 150 149 151 153 146 151 147 146 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.4 -53.7 -54.1 -54.6 -54.0 -54.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.1 -53.3 -52.7 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 0.0 -0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 78 76 76 77 76 71 68 62 61 61 63 60 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 13 13 12 14 16 19 21 24 24 25 26 850 MB ENV VOR 9 7 4 4 0 5 8 10 18 28 26 17 -2 200 MB DIV 62 46 44 49 50 26 60 57 59 123 90 73 17 700-850 TADV -8 -7 -7 -6 -3 2 2 0 6 9 11 18 8 LAND (KM) 1580 1500 1449 1381 1332 1268 1215 1181 1017 845 897 888 788 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.3 11.7 12.8 14.1 15.5 16.2 16.4 17.6 20.3 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 38.3 39.3 40.1 41.0 41.9 43.9 46.4 49.8 53.4 55.7 56.5 57.5 59.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 10 12 16 18 16 7 11 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 13 17 18 18 19 29 37 27 45 48 61 47 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 26. 29. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 5. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 9. 12. 11. 12. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 23. 33. 41. 47. 52. 52. 52. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.4 38.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942017 INVEST 09/05/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.69 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.11 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.48 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.82 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.38 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 46.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.89 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.4 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 18.2% 13.5% 8.0% 6.4% 13.1% 17.2% 26.4% Logistic: 9.4% 43.6% 26.4% 9.1% 2.7% 25.2% 55.0% 61.8% Bayesian: 5.4% 34.0% 10.9% 1.1% 1.0% 5.6% 20.4% 54.5% Consensus: 6.8% 31.9% 16.9% 6.1% 3.3% 14.7% 30.9% 47.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942017 INVEST 09/05/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942017 INVEST 09/05/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 40 43 53 63 71 77 82 82 82 84 18HR AGO 30 29 33 36 39 49 59 67 73 78 78 78 80 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 42 52 60 66 71 71 71 73 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 33 43 51 57 62 62 62 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT