* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942017 09/05/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 34 42 50 61 69 73 76 77 79 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 34 42 50 61 69 73 76 77 79 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 36 43 49 51 53 53 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 21 19 16 11 8 10 16 10 9 16 24 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -6 -8 -8 -5 -3 -4 -4 1 5 8 5 4 SHEAR DIR 11 16 21 26 10 336 245 244 218 222 231 236 262 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.4 28.3 28.7 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 143 146 148 152 145 144 149 152 154 151 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 141 140 144 148 158 150 150 149 145 149 148 145 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.7 -54.3 -53.8 -54.3 -54.8 -54.4 -54.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 79 81 81 80 80 72 65 59 59 60 60 58 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 13 13 14 15 19 22 23 24 24 26 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -4 -15 -18 -13 5 21 30 32 27 32 13 -1 200 MB DIV 62 65 32 25 31 9 44 40 81 78 79 44 23 700-850 TADV -8 -7 -7 -6 -6 2 4 10 12 12 15 14 19 LAND (KM) 1641 1553 1512 1497 1466 1424 1379 1259 1134 945 993 1008 865 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.4 9.6 10.1 10.6 12.4 14.3 15.5 15.7 15.9 17.5 20.2 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 37.2 38.1 38.6 39.0 39.6 41.4 44.2 48.1 51.8 54.0 54.9 56.3 58.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 6 7 9 15 18 20 15 8 12 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 11 13 14 16 18 23 38 24 48 40 47 31 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 23. 28. 32. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 11. 11. 12. 12. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 17. 25. 36. 44. 48. 51. 52. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.3 37.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942017 INVEST 09/05/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.45 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.09 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.49 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.81 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.34 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 23.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.91 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 15.4% 11.7% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.4% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 26.0% 14.6% 3.8% 1.1% 9.6% 34.9% 42.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 4.6% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 12.2% Consensus: 2.7% 15.3% 9.0% 3.6% 0.4% 3.3% 16.3% 18.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942017 INVEST 09/05/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942017 INVEST 09/05/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 29 31 34 42 50 61 69 73 76 77 79 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 32 40 48 59 67 71 74 75 77 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 34 42 53 61 65 68 69 71 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 26 34 45 53 57 60 61 63 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT