* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942017 09/04/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 42 51 58 66 71 78 80 79 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 42 51 58 66 71 78 80 79 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 30 34 41 47 51 53 53 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 23 21 19 16 12 4 17 14 11 5 22 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -4 -7 -7 -4 -1 -4 0 2 9 3 8 SHEAR DIR 10 20 22 24 23 7 312 254 222 246 239 238 231 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 29.0 28.7 28.2 28.3 28.8 29.1 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 142 143 144 152 149 143 144 150 152 151 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 142 139 140 142 155 153 148 147 147 141 148 148 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.5 -54.9 -54.5 -53.9 -54.7 -54.1 -54.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 -53.6 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 6 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 77 80 82 81 81 77 68 62 58 57 59 61 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 13 14 15 18 20 22 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -6 -11 -16 -21 -18 13 31 40 37 36 23 -3 200 MB DIV 52 69 70 31 16 27 37 61 46 69 82 68 57 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -6 -9 -7 -1 4 4 9 11 15 18 31 LAND (KM) 1738 1651 1594 1571 1551 1492 1447 1381 1264 1064 922 1058 1083 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.3 9.4 9.8 10.2 11.5 13.4 15.1 16.1 16.1 16.3 18.2 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 36.2 37.1 37.7 38.1 38.5 39.9 42.1 45.2 49.3 52.8 54.6 54.8 55.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 7 6 6 7 12 16 20 19 13 6 14 19 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 12 13 16 22 24 41 26 47 41 37 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 23. 28. 32. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 12. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 17. 26. 33. 41. 46. 53. 55. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.3 36.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942017 INVEST 09/04/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.37 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.08 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.46 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.80 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.37 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 20.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.91 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 13.0% 9.6% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 19.4% 9.9% 2.3% 0.7% 8.5% 33.3% 43.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 3.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 1.5% 11.6% Consensus: 2.6% 11.9% 6.7% 2.7% 0.2% 3.1% 15.6% 18.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942017 INVEST 09/04/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942017 INVEST 09/04/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 34 42 51 58 66 71 78 80 79 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 40 49 56 64 69 76 78 77 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 35 44 51 59 64 71 73 72 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 26 35 42 50 55 62 64 63 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT