* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942017 07/05/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 18 17 17 18 21 27 32 36 38 40 42 44 V (KT) LAND 20 18 17 17 18 21 27 32 36 38 40 42 44 V (KT) LGEM 20 17 16 15 15 16 16 16 17 17 17 17 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 5 7 11 12 18 17 22 22 32 27 29 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 6 3 4 -1 -1 -1 -1 -9 -5 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 56 35 331 326 318 287 284 256 253 255 276 282 302 SST (C) 26.6 26.1 25.8 25.9 26.3 26.9 27.0 27.3 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 121 117 115 117 120 127 127 129 128 124 123 125 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 117 116 118 122 126 124 121 115 108 106 108 107 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -54.7 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 -55.2 -55.5 -55.9 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 70 67 64 60 57 56 54 53 50 48 50 53 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -43 -43 -26 -23 -9 -18 -24 -26 -21 -4 1 7 200 MB DIV -19 -4 6 -4 -2 -3 38 31 45 18 4 3 5 700-850 TADV -3 6 12 15 13 23 19 17 15 6 -3 -8 -6 LAND (KM) 1844 1787 1712 1660 1618 1586 1519 1350 1309 1304 1277 1216 1156 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 13.2 14.1 15.2 16.2 18.2 20.1 22.1 24.1 25.1 25.8 26.0 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 36.6 37.8 39.4 41.2 43.1 46.9 50.6 53.4 54.7 55.4 56.3 57.3 58.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 16 19 21 21 20 18 14 9 5 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 15 5 1 3 8 10 11 7 7 6 5 6 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -2. -7. -10. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 7. 12. 16. 18. 20. 22. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.3 36.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942017 INVEST 07/05/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.04 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.12 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 101.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.84 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 1.8% 3.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942017 INVEST 07/05/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942017 INVEST 07/05/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 18 17 17 18 21 27 32 36 38 40 42 44 18HR AGO 20 19 18 18 19 22 28 33 37 39 41 43 45 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 17 20 26 31 35 37 39 41 43 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT