* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942017 07/05/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 30 30 32 36 40 42 44 44 45 44 V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 30 30 32 36 40 42 44 44 45 44 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 32 33 34 34 33 33 32 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 11 5 7 12 13 19 19 30 30 34 27 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 9 6 3 0 0 -1 -4 -7 -6 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 44 50 24 318 319 280 272 241 254 237 259 263 296 SST (C) 26.8 26.4 25.9 25.8 26.0 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.9 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 122 120 116 115 118 125 127 127 128 123 121 122 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 119 117 117 119 125 124 120 116 107 105 105 109 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -54.8 -54.6 -55.0 -54.6 -55.2 -55.1 -55.4 -55.9 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 74 70 68 65 60 55 51 51 50 46 47 53 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -38 -42 -40 -28 -5 -21 -21 -35 -20 -20 -8 -11 200 MB DIV 0 -17 -4 -10 -10 -11 24 43 39 32 6 35 -17 700-850 TADV -9 -4 7 14 17 22 21 15 17 6 -1 -9 -7 LAND (KM) 1885 1839 1776 1701 1664 1613 1603 1474 1386 1419 1411 1383 1328 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.7 13.7 14.7 15.8 17.9 19.8 21.9 24.0 25.6 26.6 27.5 28.0 LONG(DEG W) 35.9 36.9 38.3 40.1 41.9 45.7 49.3 52.1 53.8 54.4 55.3 56.6 58.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 15 18 20 21 20 18 15 11 7 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 17 11 2 2 3 16 6 8 6 5 5 5 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 9. 13. 17. 19. 21. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -3. -8. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 6. 10. 12. 14. 14. 15. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.8 35.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942017 INVEST 07/05/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.74 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.04 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.16 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.20 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.54 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.10 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 123.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.81 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 7.8% 6.5% 4.9% 0.0% 8.4% 7.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 3.8% 1.6% 0.4% 0.0% 1.3% 2.9% 4.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 4.1% 2.8% 1.8% 0.0% 3.3% 3.6% 1.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942017 INVEST 07/05/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942017 INVEST 07/05/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 29 30 30 32 36 40 42 44 44 45 44 18HR AGO 30 29 28 29 29 31 35 39 41 43 43 44 43 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 29 33 37 39 41 41 42 41 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 22 26 30 32 34 34 35 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT