* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942017 07/05/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 35 39 43 45 46 47 47 49 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 35 39 43 45 46 47 47 49 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 31 32 34 34 34 34 33 33 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 16 11 6 14 17 19 21 30 28 27 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -1 2 7 3 -2 -2 0 -5 -1 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 44 39 39 41 360 312 271 264 226 244 227 272 284 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.1 25.7 26.2 27.0 26.9 27.3 27.1 27.1 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 126 126 123 118 114 120 128 126 130 127 126 130 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 124 123 119 116 121 128 123 123 116 112 114 113 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.8 -54.8 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.4 -54.8 -54.6 -55.1 -55.1 -55.5 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 79 78 74 71 68 60 55 53 53 48 45 50 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 10 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -15 -21 -29 -28 -12 1 -24 -22 -44 -41 -48 -45 200 MB DIV 72 65 22 -1 3 11 -2 33 58 36 55 4 25 700-850 TADV -6 -11 -9 -6 3 19 27 20 13 20 6 1 0 LAND (KM) 1914 1925 1881 1823 1766 1688 1680 1602 1389 1296 1316 1311 1335 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 11.2 12.1 13.2 14.4 16.7 19.0 21.0 23.2 25.5 27.5 28.8 29.8 LONG(DEG W) 34.6 35.2 36.1 37.4 39.0 42.7 46.6 50.4 53.4 55.8 57.6 59.7 61.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 11 15 18 20 22 21 19 17 14 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 22 17 15 7 3 8 6 12 7 5 5 10 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 758 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. -3. -6. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.5 34.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942017 INVEST 07/05/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.61 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.08 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.27 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.56 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.29 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 71.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.87 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 10.4% 8.2% 5.4% 4.5% 9.2% 9.3% 13.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.9% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 2.5% 5.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 4.7% 3.1% 1.9% 1.5% 3.2% 4.0% 6.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942017 INVEST 07/05/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 32 33 35 39 43 45 46 47 47 49 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 32 34 38 42 44 45 46 46 48 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 30 34 38 40 41 42 42 44 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 27 31 33 34 35 35 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT