* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942017 07/04/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 41 46 51 53 54 54 53 51 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 37 41 46 51 53 54 54 53 51 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 33 35 39 42 43 44 45 44 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 13 13 9 6 8 8 5 15 14 22 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -3 -1 1 4 2 2 4 2 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 44 54 46 38 41 316 300 287 246 251 274 272 284 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.6 26.1 26.0 26.6 27.2 27.1 27.3 27.7 27.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 127 126 125 122 117 118 124 130 127 129 132 134 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 123 124 123 118 120 125 129 123 122 122 122 120 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.6 -54.9 -54.8 -54.3 -54.7 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 80 80 79 76 72 66 57 52 52 54 52 54 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 19 5 -5 -10 -14 -8 11 15 4 4 -26 -43 -45 200 MB DIV 75 96 94 43 16 10 34 47 45 33 19 4 4 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -8 -10 -7 10 11 8 5 1 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1889 1922 1909 1848 1778 1639 1522 1444 1230 999 790 658 593 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.6 11.3 12.2 13.2 15.2 16.9 18.0 19.0 19.7 20.4 21.0 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 34.2 34.7 35.4 36.5 37.9 41.5 45.6 49.7 53.3 56.3 58.5 60.1 61.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 12 15 18 22 21 19 16 13 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 26 21 18 17 7 7 20 9 10 11 28 13 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 745 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 17. 20. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 16. 21. 23. 24. 24. 23. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.0 34.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942017 INVEST 07/04/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.60 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.11 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.30 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.57 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.45 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 42.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.89 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 13.0% 10.0% 6.1% 5.3% 10.6% 12.0% 17.6% Logistic: 1.2% 4.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.8% 4.3% 9.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 1.9% 6.3% 3.9% 2.1% 1.8% 3.8% 5.5% 8.9% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942017 INVEST 07/04/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 37 41 46 51 53 54 54 53 51 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 39 44 49 51 52 52 51 49 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 34 39 44 46 47 47 46 44 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 31 36 38 39 39 38 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT