* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942017 07/04/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 41 48 54 62 68 70 71 72 70 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 41 48 54 62 68 70 71 72 70 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 37 41 47 54 61 67 71 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 18 18 14 14 9 8 7 6 1 4 8 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -5 -5 -1 -2 -2 0 2 8 7 5 SHEAR DIR 44 47 50 49 39 55 21 36 360 262 318 225 271 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.1 26.4 26.7 26.9 27.3 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 129 130 127 120 123 125 130 135 137 141 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 125 127 130 128 121 124 126 132 136 137 140 143 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.3 -54.6 -55.0 -54.8 -54.1 -54.4 -54.1 -54.7 -54.1 -54.5 -54.2 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 11 11 700-500 MB RH 76 79 80 79 78 73 66 62 59 55 54 51 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 15 16 16 16 15 14 12 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 34 28 11 1 0 -6 -11 -2 5 2 -3 -5 -12 200 MB DIV 76 89 102 96 72 45 36 52 30 7 -6 10 -5 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -5 -8 -12 -1 1 0 5 -3 4 6 2 LAND (KM) 1911 1910 1882 1792 1709 1492 1306 1166 1085 950 748 536 167 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 9 12 14 16 16 17 17 17 17 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 27 28 27 32 27 4 9 9 14 23 31 25 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 24. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 24. 32. 38. 40. 41. 42. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.4 34.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942017 INVEST 07/04/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.46 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.18 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.34 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.62 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.55 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 29.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.91 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 14.6% 10.9% 6.5% 5.5% 10.6% 11.8% 16.9% Logistic: 2.4% 11.9% 4.7% 1.0% 0.0% 4.2% 10.4% 19.1% Bayesian: 0.7% 9.8% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 1.7% 2.9% Consensus: 2.6% 12.1% 5.7% 2.5% 1.9% 5.2% 7.9% 13.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942017 INVEST 07/04/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 41 48 54 62 68 70 71 72 70 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 38 45 51 59 65 67 68 69 67 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 40 46 54 60 62 63 64 62 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 31 37 45 51 53 54 55 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT