* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942017 07/04/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 42 48 56 63 71 75 77 76 75 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 42 48 56 63 71 75 77 76 75 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 39 44 51 60 68 76 80 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 23 20 17 16 11 5 7 6 6 2 3 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -3 -3 -6 -3 2 -1 0 -1 7 13 6 SHEAR DIR 43 43 47 53 46 48 32 32 30 64 242 211 234 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.5 26.5 26.8 27.2 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 129 129 127 121 121 125 129 135 135 138 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 124 126 128 127 122 123 126 131 137 134 137 142 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.3 -54.5 -54.8 -54.1 -54.7 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 9 9 10 11 700-500 MB RH 73 75 78 79 79 73 68 64 62 55 51 50 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 13 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 36 33 23 13 4 -3 -8 -2 13 12 7 -3 -3 200 MB DIV 64 64 70 79 81 39 17 23 43 28 7 -2 12 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 -4 -7 -8 3 0 4 2 1 4 5 LAND (KM) 1892 1904 1917 1883 1821 1613 1415 1225 1074 1008 823 686 317 LAT (DEG N) 9.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 7 10 12 15 17 18 17 17 16 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 18 19 19 22 27 9 6 16 12 22 32 21 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 24. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 14. 13. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. -2. -3. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 18. 26. 33. 41. 45. 47. 46. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.1 33.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942017 INVEST 07/04/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.39 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.13 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.35 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.61 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.48 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 36.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.90 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 13.0% 9.7% 5.8% 4.7% 9.8% 11.5% 18.1% Logistic: 2.9% 7.7% 3.0% 0.5% 0.0% 3.0% 8.1% 12.2% Bayesian: 2.4% 19.9% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 1.3% 1.2% Consensus: 3.1% 13.5% 5.1% 2.1% 1.6% 4.6% 7.0% 10.5% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942017 INVEST 07/04/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 39 42 48 56 63 71 75 77 76 75 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 44 52 59 67 71 73 72 71 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 38 46 53 61 65 67 66 65 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 29 37 44 52 56 58 57 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT