* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942017 07/04/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 42 51 55 60 65 66 68 70 67 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 42 51 55 60 65 66 68 70 67 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 41 45 48 51 54 57 59 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 20 24 23 20 14 3 11 6 5 7 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 -7 -6 -7 -1 5 1 1 8 4 11 11 SHEAR DIR 50 42 43 48 44 25 323 313 304 272 186 279 272 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.0 25.8 26.3 27.0 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 129 128 129 127 116 121 128 130 130 130 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 124 123 123 125 129 119 125 129 129 124 120 118 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.7 -54.6 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 -53.9 -54.4 -54.2 -54.7 -54.2 -54.4 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 71 74 75 80 80 76 68 59 57 56 55 54 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 14 14 17 16 16 16 15 15 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 41 32 28 21 9 0 -7 6 27 24 24 2 -19 200 MB DIV 62 75 84 85 80 28 36 21 25 44 29 41 48 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -3 -6 -12 7 11 4 8 1 2 8 LAND (KM) 1845 1875 1902 1914 1920 1875 1746 1604 1454 1252 1033 907 807 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.7 11.4 14.0 16.2 17.3 17.7 17.9 18.3 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 33.4 33.7 34.0 34.2 34.4 35.8 38.9 43.3 47.8 51.8 54.8 57.1 58.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 6 16 22 24 21 17 12 9 6 HEAT CONTENT 15 17 19 19 20 19 2 8 15 14 35 19 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 21. 25. 30. 35. 36. 38. 40. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.0 33.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942017 INVEST 07/04/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.35 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.12 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.30 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.59 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.51 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 42.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.89 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 12.6% 9.4% 5.7% 4.6% 9.5% 10.8% 16.4% Logistic: 3.0% 12.3% 5.2% 1.3% 0.3% 4.4% 5.8% 10.8% Bayesian: 1.1% 9.5% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 1.5% 1.1% 0.8% Consensus: 2.8% 11.4% 5.3% 2.4% 1.6% 5.1% 5.9% 9.4% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942017 INVEST 07/04/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 40 42 51 55 60 65 66 68 70 67 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 38 47 51 56 61 62 64 66 63 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 32 41 45 50 55 56 58 60 57 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 31 35 40 45 46 48 50 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT