* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942017 07/03/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 37 46 53 58 63 67 68 70 69 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 37 46 53 58 63 67 68 70 69 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 33 36 39 42 46 49 51 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 16 22 23 19 14 6 6 6 6 1 12 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -3 -3 -3 -4 4 1 0 2 9 4 10 SHEAR DIR 63 47 40 45 42 37 40 263 289 279 236 244 251 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.0 25.9 26.0 26.7 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 131 132 131 126 117 118 124 129 127 127 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 122 124 127 129 129 119 121 124 127 121 118 121 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 -54.7 -54.2 -54.9 -53.7 -54.4 -54.2 -54.6 -54.5 -54.7 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 8 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 71 73 76 79 81 77 69 62 56 54 54 53 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 13 14 16 17 16 15 15 14 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 44 37 27 21 21 8 7 12 23 27 18 2 -11 200 MB DIV 65 64 72 71 61 66 40 28 21 64 73 54 53 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -3 -12 -5 20 13 5 9 5 12 LAND (KM) 1780 1783 1783 1785 1808 1904 1806 1655 1539 1458 1268 1111 989 LAT (DEG N) 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.9 9.4 11.2 13.5 15.7 17.3 18.2 19.2 20.2 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 32.7 32.7 32.7 32.8 33.2 34.7 37.8 41.9 46.0 49.8 53.0 55.3 56.9 STM SPEED (KT) 1 0 2 5 8 16 21 23 20 18 14 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 13 13 15 12 3 4 17 9 9 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):190/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 5. 4. 4. 1. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 21. 28. 33. 38. 42. 43. 45. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.7 32.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942017 INVEST 07/03/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.43 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.09 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.41 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.65 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.46 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 37.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.90 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 12.4% 9.4% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 6.9% 2.9% 0.5% 0.4% 2.8% 6.1% 7.3% Bayesian: 1.1% 3.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% Consensus: 2.4% 7.6% 4.3% 2.0% 0.1% 1.0% 5.4% 2.6% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942017 INVEST 07/03/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 34 37 46 53 58 63 67 68 70 69 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 34 43 50 55 60 64 65 67 66 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 28 37 44 49 54 58 59 61 60 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 27 34 39 44 48 49 51 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT