* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942017 07/03/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 36 41 50 58 65 72 76 77 77 76 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 36 41 50 58 65 72 76 77 77 76 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 35 39 43 48 54 59 61 61 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 16 20 23 14 10 2 7 3 4 6 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 0 -5 -2 0 2 0 1 9 8 7 SHEAR DIR 100 62 48 46 42 32 44 259 283 258 297 216 277 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.3 26.4 25.7 26.5 27.1 27.3 27.2 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 131 131 133 129 121 116 123 128 129 126 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 124 124 124 128 130 125 119 125 126 123 117 118 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -54.5 -54.9 -54.8 -54.8 -54.8 -54.2 -54.6 -54.2 -54.6 -53.9 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 67 72 74 77 79 78 72 64 58 56 55 56 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 10 11 13 15 15 15 17 18 17 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 48 45 40 28 27 21 14 23 38 44 35 13 -12 200 MB DIV 64 76 83 87 83 83 35 27 28 62 91 43 32 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -2 -9 -2 18 15 7 11 8 17 LAND (KM) 1740 1756 1761 1764 1769 1785 1951 1794 1630 1485 1300 1175 1149 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.5 8.7 10.3 12.7 15.3 17.1 17.8 17.9 18.4 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 32.4 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.6 33.3 35.7 39.5 44.1 48.2 51.4 53.4 54.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 1 1 4 13 21 24 22 17 12 9 12 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 13 13 13 16 3 2 13 10 12 15 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):190/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 9. 9. 7. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 16. 25. 33. 40. 47. 51. 52. 52. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.0 32.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942017 INVEST 07/03/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.54 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.08 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.33 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.64 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.51 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 49.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.89 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 13.8% 10.4% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 9.9% 3.9% 0.7% 0.5% 2.9% 6.4% 7.3% Bayesian: 2.4% 9.2% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.7% Consensus: 3.4% 11.0% 5.2% 2.3% 0.2% 1.1% 5.9% 2.7% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942017 INVEST 07/03/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 33 36 41 50 58 65 72 76 77 77 76 18HR AGO 25 24 28 31 36 45 53 60 67 71 72 72 71 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 29 38 46 53 60 64 65 65 64 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 29 37 44 51 55 56 56 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT