* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942017 07/03/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 50 59 67 74 75 79 81 81 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 50 59 67 74 75 79 81 81 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 32 34 40 46 52 58 62 65 65 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 12 13 15 18 17 10 10 13 10 4 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 -1 -3 -9 -6 0 0 0 4 8 6 SHEAR DIR 130 100 84 67 52 52 40 46 300 297 279 139 191 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.5 26.7 25.7 26.6 27.0 27.3 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 128 129 130 129 129 123 116 125 129 130 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 120 123 123 125 122 126 125 119 129 132 127 124 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -54.4 -54.8 -54.4 -55.3 -54.2 -54.6 -54.2 -54.6 -54.2 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 65 66 68 72 75 80 81 75 68 60 58 57 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 9 10 14 14 15 17 16 18 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 52 51 49 44 37 25 1 -7 -10 18 37 33 12 200 MB DIV 47 41 58 80 85 93 86 23 21 18 71 70 36 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -4 -6 -2 11 6 7 3 3 LAND (KM) 1747 1782 1817 1866 1904 1867 1866 1855 1781 1679 1524 1197 968 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 9.8 9.7 9.5 9.3 8.9 9.5 11.6 14.6 17.3 18.4 18.3 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 32.8 33.1 33.4 33.8 34.1 34.7 35.0 36.1 39.0 43.6 48.7 53.0 55.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 4 4 2 7 16 24 25 24 16 10 HEAT CONTENT 16 17 17 18 20 23 25 21 1 7 8 13 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 20. 23. 26. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 10. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 10. 8. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 25. 34. 42. 49. 50. 54. 56. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.9 32.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942017 INVEST 07/03/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.67 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.11 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.39 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.62 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.44 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 65.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.87 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 14.2% 10.8% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 15.6% 7.1% 1.8% 1.3% 3.9% 6.7% 11.7% Bayesian: 1.7% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.1% 1.8% Consensus: 3.3% 10.5% 6.0% 2.7% 0.4% 1.4% 6.5% 4.5% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942017 INVEST 07/03/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 35 39 50 59 67 74 75 79 81 81 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 35 46 55 63 70 71 75 77 77 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 29 40 49 57 64 65 69 71 71 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 30 39 47 54 55 59 61 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT