* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942016 09/12/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 36 38 37 42 44 43 42 41 42 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 36 38 37 42 44 43 42 41 42 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 32 33 33 32 30 29 29 30 32 37 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 20 18 25 33 38 31 26 23 26 30 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 4 7 8 6 1 -1 -3 2 -1 4 6 SHEAR DIR 222 233 230 205 213 218 205 200 209 224 221 213 224 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.3 28.6 28.1 27.3 27.4 27.5 25.5 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 137 135 135 142 146 139 128 130 133 114 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 127 123 123 129 130 121 111 112 116 103 79 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.7 -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 8 7 7 4 0 700-500 MB RH 64 60 56 56 53 51 49 53 57 58 54 50 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 18 18 18 18 17 21 22 21 21 22 26 850 MB ENV VOR 42 18 6 10 11 16 27 48 34 41 20 60 200 200 MB DIV 44 32 46 90 83 37 13 65 30 46 57 87 87 700-850 TADV 7 11 15 16 11 10 7 13 4 8 8 13 24 LAND (KM) 1636 1678 1701 1683 1644 1584 1613 1719 1670 1455 1183 866 776 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 10 12 12 11 11 13 18 25 28 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 20 22 26 34 16 13 1 10 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 14 CX,CY: -5/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 23. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -7. -11. -15. -19. -22. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 1. 2. 0. -1. -1. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 12. 14. 13. 12. 11. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.3 48.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942016 INVEST 09/12/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.34 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.46 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.85 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.40 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.62 1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 163.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.78 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 17.3% 10.9% 8.5% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 3.7% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 7.1% 4.1% 2.9% 2.0% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942016 INVEST 09/12/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942016 INVEST 09/12/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 35 36 38 37 42 44 43 42 41 42 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 33 35 34 39 41 40 39 38 39 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 31 30 35 37 36 35 34 35 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 22 27 29 28 27 26 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT