* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942016 09/11/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 29 31 33 35 43 43 43 43 43 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 29 31 33 35 43 43 43 43 43 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 24 24 26 28 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 16 16 17 29 30 26 23 15 23 21 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 5 9 6 4 -1 -2 1 1 1 3 SHEAR DIR 233 221 233 236 217 228 210 205 200 229 231 263 238 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.4 28.7 28.6 27.7 27.2 26.9 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 137 137 136 137 142 146 145 134 130 129 94 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 130 130 128 126 124 125 128 127 119 118 119 86 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -54.5 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 5 1 700-500 MB RH 68 65 61 57 56 54 52 52 54 57 61 64 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 17 18 18 19 20 24 23 22 22 23 850 MB ENV VOR 47 40 21 10 13 5 27 26 46 34 25 10 36 200 MB DIV 62 56 44 46 73 24 30 25 66 19 65 54 77 700-850 TADV 2 7 12 17 18 13 12 10 5 0 8 25 35 LAND (KM) 1503 1567 1624 1635 1656 1592 1557 1562 1603 1795 1501 1071 792 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 10 8 8 10 14 21 28 30 HEAT CONTENT 23 21 19 18 19 31 34 20 15 9 6 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 12 CX,CY: -4/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 16. 21. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.6 47.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942016 INVEST 09/11/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.53 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.45 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.78 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.39 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.68 1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 115.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 17.1% 10.7% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% Logistic: 1.1% 6.2% 2.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 8.0% 4.4% 3.0% 0.0% 0.1% 3.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942016 INVEST 09/11/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942016 INVEST 09/11/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 27 29 31 33 35 43 43 43 43 43 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 27 29 31 33 41 41 41 41 41 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 26 28 30 38 38 38 38 38 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 19 21 23 31 31 31 31 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT