* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942016 09/11/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 31 34 36 39 37 42 41 41 42 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 31 34 36 39 37 42 41 41 42 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 26 25 26 27 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 13 17 20 16 25 31 30 23 23 25 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 2 3 6 7 6 3 0 -1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 222 244 232 219 229 209 220 205 211 198 223 211 220 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 27.9 28.1 28.6 28.9 28.3 27.5 27.6 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 135 136 137 136 139 146 151 142 131 132 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 132 130 130 129 126 127 132 134 124 114 113 112 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.2 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 72 70 69 66 61 57 53 49 48 52 55 51 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 17 16 17 18 20 19 21 20 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 62 56 51 45 30 19 23 25 27 45 35 27 56 200 MB DIV 93 89 80 66 46 68 44 20 4 32 41 70 52 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 5 5 12 18 13 9 2 2 8 14 LAND (KM) 1330 1397 1469 1531 1550 1572 1518 1491 1507 1622 1580 1374 1179 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 12 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 18 19 23 26 24 20 36 28 21 18 3 8 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 0. -5. -9. -13. -16. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. -1. 2. 0. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 14. 12. 17. 16. 16. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.4 46.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942016 INVEST 09/11/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.61 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.67 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.54 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.48 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.69 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 81.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.86 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 18.1% 11.4% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 13.1% Logistic: 5.0% 22.5% 10.3% 3.8% 0.0% 2.3% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.8% 2.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 4.1% 14.4% 7.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.8% 4.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942016 INVEST 09/11/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942016 INVEST 09/11/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 30 31 34 36 39 37 42 41 41 42 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 28 31 33 36 34 39 38 38 39 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 27 29 32 30 35 34 34 35 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 21 24 22 27 26 26 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT