* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942016 09/10/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 42 49 56 62 60 63 62 63 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 42 49 56 62 60 63 62 63 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 32 36 38 41 43 44 45 46 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 4 8 9 14 15 21 22 30 29 23 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 0 1 4 2 9 8 4 3 2 3 SHEAR DIR 53 96 200 253 247 233 196 211 187 200 183 208 213 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.9 28.3 28.8 29.0 28.2 27.7 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 136 135 136 138 136 141 149 153 140 132 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 135 131 129 130 133 128 128 135 140 123 112 109 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.2 -53.7 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 69 69 69 68 67 61 57 52 49 51 56 52 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 18 19 19 21 24 27 25 28 28 31 850 MB ENV VOR 82 79 66 61 57 43 36 41 46 36 57 22 23 200 MB DIV 96 107 97 78 80 35 57 53 24 3 61 22 79 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -3 -1 2 11 17 17 16 6 3 14 LAND (KM) 1223 1251 1292 1334 1376 1474 1530 1472 1430 1475 1655 1497 1439 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 11 10 11 14 13 10 11 14 13 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 21 18 19 19 24 33 21 49 25 26 4 12 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 8.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 0. -5. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 4. 6. 10. 7. 11. 10. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 24. 31. 37. 35. 38. 37. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.6 45.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942016 INVEST 09/10/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.87 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.57 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.42 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.56 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.71 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 81.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.86 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 22.8% 11.7% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 17.2% Logistic: 5.1% 31.6% 12.8% 3.8% 0.0% 7.0% 4.1% Bayesian: 1.5% 8.6% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% Consensus: 4.2% 21.0% 9.2% 4.6% 0.0% 2.4% 7.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942016 INVEST 09/10/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942016 INVEST 09/10/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 35 38 42 49 56 62 60 63 62 63 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 34 38 45 52 58 56 59 58 59 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 28 32 39 46 52 50 53 52 53 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 22 29 36 42 40 43 42 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT