* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942016 09/10/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 40 47 52 57 63 68 65 67 65 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 40 47 52 57 63 68 65 67 65 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 33 39 42 44 47 49 48 48 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 6 3 6 10 15 25 26 34 32 29 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 -2 -2 0 1 0 2 3 4 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 51 53 79 182 275 225 230 203 202 190 200 201 212 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.3 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 137 136 136 137 139 140 150 151 145 140 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 135 132 130 130 133 135 130 137 134 126 119 118 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 68 69 68 70 69 66 62 57 51 51 54 50 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 17 19 20 20 20 23 27 25 27 27 850 MB ENV VOR 99 94 87 72 66 49 31 38 28 47 53 59 38 200 MB DIV 89 115 127 120 82 61 18 43 52 49 6 25 35 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -5 -5 -3 4 15 15 19 14 10 5 5 LAND (KM) 1230 1212 1206 1234 1298 1516 1625 1538 1467 1491 1558 1540 1388 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.7 14.2 14.8 15.7 18.2 20.9 23.6 25.7 27.8 29.8 31.3 33.4 LONG(DEG W) 45.0 45.9 46.7 47.2 47.7 48.4 50.0 52.0 53.9 55.4 56.9 57.2 55.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 8 9 11 14 17 14 13 12 10 8 14 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 20 19 19 23 19 37 22 29 15 17 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 4. -1. -6. -10. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 7. 11. 8. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 22. 27. 32. 38. 43. 40. 42. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.2 45.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942016 INVEST 09/10/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.89 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.50 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.43 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.63 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.72 1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 80.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.86 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 24.4% 11.7% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 18.6% Logistic: 4.0% 31.6% 11.1% 2.6% 0.0% 6.2% 6.4% Bayesian: 0.8% 10.4% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% Consensus: 3.5% 22.2% 8.6% 4.2% 0.0% 2.1% 8.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942016 INVEST 09/10/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942016 INVEST 09/10/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 31 35 40 47 52 57 63 68 65 67 65 18HR AGO 25 24 28 32 37 44 49 54 60 65 62 64 62 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 30 37 42 47 53 58 55 57 55 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 27 32 37 43 48 45 47 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT