* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942016 09/10/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 46 50 55 58 64 63 62 66 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 46 50 55 58 64 63 62 66 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 28 30 36 39 39 39 39 39 38 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 3 4 8 14 22 20 25 26 31 31 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 -2 -2 1 3 3 6 8 4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 96 67 47 161 219 257 239 219 221 193 209 206 211 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.4 29.0 29.5 29.7 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 139 137 136 136 137 137 143 152 160 163 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 137 135 133 131 131 130 128 131 139 143 142 136 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.7 -53.2 -53.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 66 67 69 68 68 65 60 59 55 49 46 46 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 16 16 18 18 18 19 23 22 21 24 850 MB ENV VOR 99 99 95 90 80 71 55 45 44 46 40 49 41 200 MB DIV 94 90 106 108 96 72 44 52 54 50 0 4 25 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -4 -5 -4 3 3 13 17 14 11 5 4 LAND (KM) 1223 1214 1203 1243 1293 1429 1468 1427 1302 1208 1179 1227 1338 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 21 24 24 20 21 34 30 32 36 39 45 37 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 0. -5. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 8. 7. 4. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 25. 30. 33. 39. 38. 37. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.9 44.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942016 INVEST 09/10/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.95 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 37.5 to 2.9 0.46 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.53 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.60 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.74 1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 90.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 23.7% 11.6% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 37.8% 17.1% 5.4% 0.0% 10.9% 5.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 6.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 3.6% 22.5% 10.0% 5.1% 0.0% 3.7% 1.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942016 INVEST 09/10/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942016 INVEST 09/10/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 34 38 46 50 55 58 64 63 62 66 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 35 43 47 52 55 61 60 59 63 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 29 37 41 46 49 55 54 53 57 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 27 31 36 39 45 44 43 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT