* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942016 09/10/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 45 50 63 70 75 78 77 77 81 80 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 45 50 63 70 75 78 77 77 81 80 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 41 45 57 67 72 74 73 72 70 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 3 6 6 7 4 9 20 31 37 23 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -1 -1 -3 0 3 2 -1 -2 2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 95 104 23 17 36 349 267 240 216 212 203 197 211 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.7 29.1 29.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 143 140 139 137 137 139 139 150 155 164 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 144 141 136 132 130 133 138 137 143 140 145 141 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 -53.3 -53.7 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 11 700-500 MB RH 67 66 66 65 65 68 70 66 63 56 55 49 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 15 16 19 19 20 20 19 21 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 101 98 100 100 101 85 58 27 42 28 47 53 69 200 MB DIV 90 87 82 90 96 77 59 8 52 23 46 23 0 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -4 -5 -4 -4 11 22 12 2 5 0 LAND (KM) 1296 1228 1148 1092 1061 1115 1354 1651 1700 1539 1438 1246 1090 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.4 14.2 16.3 19.4 23.2 26.2 28.1 28.0 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 43.5 44.9 46.2 47.2 47.9 48.4 47.8 48.1 50.2 53.4 56.5 59.5 60.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 11 8 6 7 13 19 22 19 14 11 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 22 31 32 31 28 22 17 27 22 41 34 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 11.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 6. 1. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 5. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 20. 33. 40. 45. 48. 47. 47. 51. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.8 43.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942016 INVEST 09/10/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.88 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.67 3.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.51 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.55 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.73 2.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 114.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 39.9% 21.7% 11.8% 9.4% 17.1% 26.7% Logistic: 13.0% 67.0% 44.0% 24.3% 0.0% 43.4% 32.5% Bayesian: 3.0% 41.5% 20.0% 0.7% 0.3% 16.6% 31.4% Consensus: 7.9% 49.4% 28.6% 12.3% 3.2% 25.7% 30.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942016 INVEST 09/10/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942016 INVEST 09/10/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 39 45 50 63 70 75 78 77 77 81 80 18HR AGO 30 29 34 40 45 58 65 70 73 72 72 76 75 12HR AGO 30 27 26 32 37 50 57 62 65 64 64 68 67 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 38 45 50 53 52 52 56 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT