* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942016 09/09/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 46 51 63 72 75 78 79 81 79 84 V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 46 51 63 72 75 78 79 81 79 84 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 39 44 49 61 72 77 79 77 73 69 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 8 7 10 5 4 15 21 37 30 27 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -4 -7 -4 -1 -1 1 1 0 0 1 0 4 SHEAR DIR 65 87 82 27 19 13 308 239 215 220 199 234 214 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.3 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.5 29.2 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 146 145 142 140 135 137 139 147 156 161 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 146 145 142 136 133 132 135 137 141 143 141 134 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -53.8 -53.3 -53.8 -53.3 -53.9 -53.1 -53.3 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 68 67 65 64 64 68 71 68 64 56 51 46 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 15 15 17 19 18 20 21 24 23 27 850 MB ENV VOR 105 105 101 102 97 82 63 33 32 32 43 44 67 200 MB DIV 93 103 99 94 94 95 50 30 42 52 59 -2 16 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -3 -6 -3 -4 8 20 18 11 6 8 LAND (KM) 1360 1272 1190 1123 1086 1120 1322 1592 1718 1502 1328 1141 1080 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.8 13.6 15.6 18.5 22.0 24.7 26.3 26.2 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 42.2 43.6 44.8 45.8 46.6 47.2 47.0 47.4 49.7 52.9 56.1 58.6 58.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 11 9 6 7 13 17 21 19 13 8 3 HEAT CONTENT 15 17 21 33 38 29 20 26 23 30 40 42 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 11.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 17. 21. 24. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 2. -3. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 4. 6. 9. 7. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 21. 33. 42. 45. 48. 49. 51. 49. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.4 42.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942016 INVEST 09/09/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 7.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.74 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.55 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.55 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.59 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.77 1.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 114.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 39.5% 19.6% 11.2% 8.5% 12.0% 24.8% Logistic: 8.9% 57.4% 28.7% 9.5% 0.0% 31.4% 37.7% Bayesian: 3.9% 44.4% 23.6% 0.7% 0.2% 5.0% 22.9% Consensus: 6.8% 47.1% 23.9% 7.2% 2.9% 16.1% 28.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942016 INVEST 09/09/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942016 INVEST 09/09/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 35 40 46 51 63 72 75 78 79 81 79 84 18HR AGO 30 29 34 40 45 57 66 69 72 73 75 73 78 12HR AGO 30 27 26 32 37 49 58 61 64 65 67 65 70 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 37 46 49 52 53 55 53 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT