* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942016 09/09/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 42 53 66 76 82 86 86 87 91 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 42 53 66 76 82 86 86 87 91 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 31 34 38 48 60 69 75 79 80 80 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 9 5 7 11 17 11 6 10 26 39 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -5 -3 -2 -3 -4 -3 1 0 -6 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 79 82 101 92 30 32 8 10 310 240 229 206 213 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.2 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 146 147 147 146 144 141 137 140 142 143 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 156 151 150 147 138 138 140 137 140 140 134 127 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.2 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 70 66 64 61 59 61 66 70 67 66 58 55 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 16 18 19 19 19 18 20 25 850 MB ENV VOR 110 99 100 92 85 89 98 59 30 35 25 19 28 200 MB DIV 66 84 76 58 49 60 60 57 37 58 37 50 35 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -2 -2 -5 -5 -5 -8 0 17 31 9 5 LAND (KM) 1468 1338 1221 1097 983 848 887 1115 1431 1739 1705 1704 1596 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.7 12.8 12.6 12.3 11.8 12.2 13.9 16.8 20.7 24.9 28.8 31.0 LONG(DEG W) 40.7 42.8 44.6 46.2 47.5 49.0 49.0 47.8 47.2 48.4 50.8 53.5 56.6 STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 17 14 11 4 6 13 18 22 25 20 16 HEAT CONTENT 21 16 21 37 37 32 33 28 25 14 29 14 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 6. 7. 4. -1. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 7. 7. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 3. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 17. 28. 41. 51. 57. 61. 61. 62. 66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.2 40.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942016 INVEST 09/09/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.84 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 37.5 to 2.9 0.46 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.53 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.44 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.89 1.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 110.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.83 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.7 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 31.5% 12.6% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 18.8% Logistic: 4.2% 37.4% 13.5% 2.6% 0.0% 17.1% 37.4% Bayesian: 0.8% 19.0% 3.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 3.6% Consensus: 3.8% 29.3% 10.0% 4.4% 0.0% 5.8% 20.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942016 INVEST 09/09/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942016 INVEST 09/09/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 32 36 42 53 66 76 82 86 86 87 91 18HR AGO 25 24 28 32 38 49 62 72 78 82 82 83 87 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 31 42 55 65 71 75 75 76 80 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 21 32 45 55 61 65 65 66 70 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT